What are the Chances of Getting a Perfect Bracket?


via Marin Independent Journal

Millions of people participate in March Madness even though they don’t watch college basketball. In fact, a 12-year-old boy won the ESPN March Madness bracket tournament on won just guessing most of the games. This shows how lucky you must be to get a perfect bracket. Many experts spend hours and even days studying these teams, and they all just got beat by a 12-year-old boy who doesn’t even pay attention to college basketball. As of now, a man has a perfect bracket through the sweet sixteen which has never been done before. “For reference, if every game were a coin toss, the odds of predicting 48 in a row are 1 in 281,474,976,710,656. So, yeah, this is kinda impressive.” Many factors go into this such as if the teams are put as a bad seed, or injuries could also affect this.

Although the number one seed is supposed to be the best team, they aren’t always the best and do not win every game. If the best team would win every game, then there would be four one seeds in the final four, but the best team doesn’t always win. A great example of why it is near impossible to get a perfect bracket is when the 16 seed UMBC upset the number one seed Virginia in 2018. Anyone who pays somewhat attention to sports heard about this crazy upset. It was the first time this had ever occurred, and UMBC went on to lose the very next game, but this bracket was very historic. There have been other occurrences where a two seed loses to a fifteen seed and three seeds losing to fourteen seeds. The hard part about this is knowing there will be a few upsets, but you have to guess where those upsets will be. Another example of two even teams even though one was a lower seed was the one seed Duke versus the nine seed UCF. Tacko Falls led his team to the round of 32 against Duke. UCF missed a couple of layups at the end of the game and lost to Duke. These two teams went back and forth and seemed to be evenly matched. If UCF had won that game, many people’s brackets would have failed at that point because Duke has three top 15 prospects in college and are the best team in March Madness, but nearly got upset.

Another factor that can change the way a of a bracket is injuries. One of the best college basketball players Zion Williamson ripped his shoe and twisted his ankle and was questionable for the NCAA Tournament, but luckily healed and came back better than ever. Another injury that has affected a team is Kentucky Forward, PJ Washington. During the regular season, he was a starter and played well, but now, Kentucky has barely been hanging on without PJ Washington because of a sprained ankle. He is questionable for the next game, but this could hurt their chances of beating Houston which is a three seed. Injuries can happen in many different ways whether it be in a game, practice, or even outside of practice. This is why outside of basketball, they are cautious outside of practice and eat the right things and don’t do anything that could injure them like cliff jumping or other activities. One injury can be the difference whether a team is a one seed team or a two seed team.

So after all of the factors you put into getting a perfect bracket, it is near impossible. No matter how much research anyone does, they can not affect whether a team that should be a one seed is put as a four seed, or if a player gets injured in the middle of a game.